Scientists at the UK’s National Oceanography Centre (NOC) have been provided £11 million in funding, from the UK’s Advanced Research + Invention Agency (ARIA) to lead critical research into forecasting a major climate tipping point – the potential collapse of the Atlantic Subpolar Gyre.
Sitting just south of Greenland and Iceland, the Atlantic Subpolar Gyre is a key component of the global ocean’s circulation system, transporting heat around the planet, helping to regulate temperatures in Europe and North America. It is one of two convection regions within the Atlantic Meridonal Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Its collapse could have a major global impact on our weather, food and security, but existing climate models and ocean observations are too limited to accurately forecast a tipping point which could signal its collapse.
The funding, part of ARIA’s, five-year, £81 million Forecasting Tipping Points programme, covers eight projects, three of which are being led by NOC’s world-leading scientists and are worth more than £7 million.
One, Aerial Experimental Remote sensing of Ocean Salinity, heaT, Advection and Thermohaline Shifts (AEROSTATS), is an ambitious project exploring the use of novel earth observation platforms, such as airships or high-altitude pseudo-satellites. The second, Full Ocean Fibre, will unlock the potential of existing international undersea communications cables to become a vast sensor network, starting in the North Atlantic.
The third project is called Subpolar gyre Observations, models and artificial intelligence to Resolve Tipping points and provide Early warning Detection (SORTED). This will use artificial intelligence (AI) and models to push the limits of existing ocean observations and to transform our ability to detect the early warning signs of Subpolar Gyre collapse, including identifying gaps and uncertainty in data.
“This transformative funding from ARIA comes at a critical moment for ocean and climate science, helping to fulfill an urgent need to address gaps in our understanding of Subpolar North Atlantic tipping points,” says NOC Chief Scientist Professor Penny Holliday.
“NOC will be at the forefront of this ambitious programme developing pioneering innovative approaches – from AI-driven modelling to revolutionary ocean observation technologies – to bridge those knowledge gaps. By harnessing our world-leading science and pioneering technology, we will lead and collaborate on multiple projects to enhance our ability to detect early warning signs and better understand the future of our changing ocean.”
NOC is supporting a further five Subpolar Gyre focused projects, led by other organisations and institutes, with more than £4 million funding. These are POLEMIX, led by the University of Southampton, TIMBER, led by the University of East Anglia, PROMOTE, led by the University of Reading, VERIFY, led by the University of Leeds and GRAIL, led by British Antarctic Survey.
These projects cover a wide range of innovation and collaboration, from a new proof-of-concept observing system using autonomous profiling floats to predicting tipping points in marine ecosystems and their consequences and opportunities for the UK, especially for the fishing industry.
They will also involve improving earth system models, creating digital twins to test early warning systems and using robotics to gather data in Antarctic regions.
